WTI and RBOB prices slipped lower today after EIA raised its 2017 US crude output forecast (and the dollar rallied) along with Libya production headlines. WTI bounced on a much bigger than expected draw from API (-5.789mm v -2mm exp), but RBOB slipped towards the lows of the day on another unexpectedly large gasoline build.
- Crude -5.789mm (-2mm exp) – biggest since 2016
- Cushing -133k (+60k exp)
- Gasoline +3.169mm (+350k exp)
- Distillates -1.174mm (-800k exp)
Hope (for the bulls) is that crude oil stocks have peaked (with seasonal declines due) and API appears to confirm that with the 5th weekly draw (and largest since December – if this holds for tomorrow’s DOE data). Gasoline saw another big build though…
Heading into the API print, WTI drifted up to test $46 and RBOB above $1.49 but the kneejerk reaction was crude bid and gasoline offered…
“The Libyan output increase is putting pressure on the market and there is a lot of new bearish interest coming from funds,” warns Clayton Rogers, an energy derivative broker at SCS Commodities Corp. in Jersey City, N.J..