The bounce off a $47 handle on Friday in WTI was fading fast again this morning…
following news that money managers cut their bullish Brent and WTI oil bets by 154,871 to a net-long position of 699,209 contracts – the biggest decline on record.
While the drop was large, net longs remain extreme suggesting the long squeeze has more to go…
Which of course OPEC had to try and jawbone away…
- OPEC SUPPORT INCREASES FOR EXTENDING OIL SUPPLY CUT INTO H2, BUT NON-OPEC PARTICIPATION NEEDED – OPEC SOURCES – Reuters News
More details from the original Reuters note:
OPEC oil producers increasingly favor extending beyond June a pact on reducing crude supply to balance the market, sources within the group said, although Russia and other non-members need to remain part of the initiative.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is curbing its output by about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1 for six months, the first reduction in eight years. Russia and other non-OPEC producers agreed to cut half as much.
The deal has lifted oil prices LCOc1, but inventories in industrial nations are rising and higher returns have encouraged U.S. companies to pump more. A growing number of OPEC officials believe it may take longer than six months to reduce stocks.
“An extension is needed to balance the market,” an OPEC delegate said. “Any extension of the cut agreement should be with non-OPEC.”
OPEC sources told Reuters in February that the group could extend the supply-reduction pact, or even apply deeper cuts from July, if inventories fail to drop to a targeted level.
The group wants stocks in the industrialized world to fall to the average of the past five years. According to the most recent data, for January, inventories of crude and refined products stood 278 million barrels above this level.
Five other OPEC sources said it was increasingly clear that the market needed more than six months to stabilize but added that all producers – in OPEC plus non-members – had to agree.
“The ministers will meet in May to decide, but everyone has to be on board,” an OPEC source from a major producer said.
OPEC next meets to decide output policy on May 25 in Vienna. There will also be a gathering in May of OPEC and non-OPEC producers, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said last month.
“Hard negotiations are on the way,” another one of the sources said.
There are several catches:
Russia, the largest of the 11 outside producers working with OPEC, has not publicly said whether it supports extending the supply cut, but is wary about the revival of U.S. shale output due to higher oil prices. “It’s too early to know whether everyone will agree to this,” a source from a non-OPEC participant in the deal said, referring to prolonging the output curb.
Despite the potential complication admitted by the OPEC sources that a deal is contingent on getting all OPEC and non-OPEC members, algos were delighted with the initial headline…
… although it is unclear how long the kneejerk move higher will continue.