With little on the US economic docket in the coming days as the summer doldrums arrive, with Citi saying that “though several events of note linger on the horizon for later this week, G10 is firmly on the beach as of this morning”, this week’s focus is on the ECB and BoJ meeting along with minutes from the RBA and the Riksbank. Also important are inflation releases from the UK, New Zealand and Canada along with several China data prints. In EM, there are monetary policy meetings in Indonesia, South Africa, Hungary, Kazakhstan and Hong Kong.
Here are the key events to look, courtesy of Bank of America, for a macro preview of this week’s events and how they may impact currencies see “FX Week Ahead Preview: Is it “End Of Days” For The Greenback”:
Central banks take centre-stage: watch the ECB and BoJ:
BofA believes that after the “Sintra hiccup”, the ECB for next week has to choose between “backtracking” and “assuming”. They think the ECB will choose the latter, and toughen its language marginally, by removing the easing bias on QE, while insisting on the need for prudence and a “persistent” monetary stimulus. Looking ahead, we think the ECB may wait for the Fed’s decision in September before making a move and wait until October before revealing the quantum of QE buying in 2018.
At its 20 July meeting, the BoJ policy board is expected to keep its short rate unchanged at -0.1% and keep its guidance on QE unchanged. The weakness in YTD inflation means the BoJ board will likely cut its FY17 core CPI forecasts. But with other indicators pointing to a gradual acceleration in growth and prices, the board has little incentive to change policy, and will likely stick to its optimistic FY18/19 projections.
…along with minutes from the RBA and the Riksbank
That RBA is expected to likely downplay recent signs of rising prices given the expected tempering effect of supervisory measures on housing activity. Currency strength also argues against a shift to more hawkish tone at this stage. The Riksbank removed their easing bias at the July 4th meeting in a unanimous decision but nevertheless emphasized their dovish tilt and sensitivity to the ECB. It will be interesting to see the thought process of the various members in the Minutes.
The week ahead in Emerging Markets
There are monetary policy meetings in Indonesia, South Africa, Hungary, Kazakhstan and Hong Kong. Sovereign rating review in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Czech Rep. and Abu Dhabi.
A weekly breakdown from DB’s Jim Reid
- To the week ahead now. After the excitement of China’s data dump this morning there isn’t a huge amount left over the course of the day with final June CPI report for the Euro area and the July empire manufacturing print in the US the only data of note.
- Tuesday is busy though and we kick off with China property prices data in the morning. In Europe we’ll get the ECB’s bank lending survey for Q2 followed by the June CPI/RPI/PPI data docket in the UK before we end with the July ZEW survey in Germany. Over in the US tomorrow we’ll get the June import price index reading and July NAHB housing market index print.
- With nothing of note in Europe or Asia on Wednesday, the focus will be on the US with June housing starts and building permits data.
- Thursday kicks off in Japan where the overnight data includes the June trade data, but the bigger focus will be on the BoJ meeting outcome. During the European session we’ll get Germany PPI and UK retail sales, shortly before the ECB meeting just after midday. In the US on Thursday we’ll get initial jobless claims, Philly Fed business outlook and conference board’s leading index.
- It’s a quiet end to the week on Friday with UK public sector net borrowing data the only release of note.
- With the Fed entering the blackout period there is no Fedspeak scheduled this week, while over at the ECB and BoE there are also no scheduled speakers. Other events to note however include the EU’s Barnier and UK’s David Davis meeting for a second round of Brexit talks, kicking off today. The inaugural meeting of the US-China comprehensive economic dialogue on Wednesday in Washington where the first gathering is due to cover economic and trade issues between the two nations. Finally earnings season ramps up in the US with 69 S&P 500 companies due to report including Netlfix (Monday), Goldman Sachs, BofA, IBM, Johnson & Johnson (Tuesday), Morgan Stanley (Wednesday), Microsoft, eBay (Thursday) and GE (Friday).
Focusing only on the US, here is a summary table from BofA:
Finally, here is Goldman with a focus on the US, together with consensus estimate:
The key economic release this week is housing starts on Thursday. There are no scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.
Monday, July 17
- 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, July (consensus +15.0, last +19.8)
Tuesday, July 18
- 08:30 AM Import price index, June (consensus -0.2%, last -0.3%)
- 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, July (consensus 68, last 67): Consensus expects the NAHB homebuilders’ index to tick up in July, after homebuilder sentiment weakened by 2pt. The index remains close to the March cycle high of 71.
- 04:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows, May (last +$65.8bn)
Wednesday, July 19
- 08:30 AM Housing starts, June (GS +2.5%, consensus +6.2%, last -5.5%); Building permits, June (consensus +2.8%, last -4.9%): The lagged impact of higher mortgage rates appears to be weighing on single family demand for both new and existing homes, despite an otherwise favorable fundamental backdrop. At the same time, the large pipeline of apartment projects in the planning stages suggests scope for a rebound in that segment. Taken together, we expect a 2.5% rebound in overall housing starts, reversing some of the 5.5% drop in May.
- 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, July (GS +25.0, consensus +24.3, last +27.6): We estimate the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index pulled back 2.6pt to 25.0 in July, after the index declined 11.2pt to 27.6 in June. We expect the index to retrench a bit, but likely to levels still consistent with a solid pace of expansion in manufacturing activity, given encouraging industrial commentary.
Thursday, July 20
- 8:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 15 (GS 245k, consensus 245k, last 247k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 8 (consensus 1,950k, last 1,945k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged down 2k to 245k in the week ended July 15. Initial claims can be particularly volatile around this time of year due to annual summer auto plant shutdowns, and we believe the prior week’s increase likely reflected at least some impact from closures around the July Fourth holiday. We expect this increase in auto-related claims filings to reverse in this week’s report, leading to a modestly lower overall reading. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have risen over the last month following a sharp decline in the first four months of the year.
Friday, July 21
- There are no major economic data releases.
Source: DB, BofA, GS