Let me be clear about this, the trend over the last year in Crude Oil is up as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs.
In 2015, Crude kissed the underside of falling resistance line (1) for weeks and weeks, not making much progress up or down (very narrow range). While it continued to kiss the underside of resistance, the Crude Oil fear index continued to fall. After weeks of not being able to break above falling resistance line (1), sellers came in and Crude fell hard, while the fear ratio rallied nearly 50%.
Currently Crude Oil has been kissing the underside of line (1) for weeks and weeks, trading again in a very narrow range, similar to what it did in 2015. At the same time it has been kissing the underside of line (1) for weeks and weeks, the fear index has continued to fall.
The patterns of today (kissing the underside of falling resistance), looks very similar to what took place in 2015. In times like this, one of my favorites quotes comes to mind; “Its not the odds of an event happening that is important, its the impact if it does.”
The odds are low that Crude Oil repeats again. The impact if it does, could be large, as Crude Oil and the broad have been fairly correlated since 2015.